“Specifically, abnormal DUCs now account for about 12% of our total forecasted growth of 1.3 million b/d over the next few years,” Adkins said. Raymond James is assuming oil prices will increase over the coming year, and analysts include the additional DUC-related oil supply in their models. There also were 941 DUCs in the three natural gas-dominant regions, the Haynesville, Marcellus and Utica shales, which was one fewer than in April.Īs the DUC count reverts to historical norms within a few years, which is the Raymond James team’s assumption, “we would still expect the global oil market to be meaningfully undersupplied until oil prices rise well above $50/bbl and operators can afford to complete these wells,” Adkins said. “Our best guess is that it will take around three to four years to work about 2,300 abnormal DUCs off, adding 150,000 to 200,000 b/d annually to the rig count-driven production increases over the next few years,” Adkins said.Īccording to the Energy Information Administration, DUCs at the end of May totaled 5,005 in the four oil-dominant regions - Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara - an increase of 177 from Apri. Operators gradually should “grow into” their abnormal DUC backlog with more completions, which in turn would reduce the inventory to a more manageable level by around 2020. This pressure drop (DRAWDOWN) causes production flow into the well from the producing formation. If the PRODUCING BHP at the face of the formation can be reduced, this reduction of pressure constitutes DRAWDOWN. DRAWDOWN: The difference between the reservoir pressure and the pressure at the bottom of the tubing (FLOWING BHP).Fluid column pressure (weight) and surface pressure (flow line) will place unnecessary back Pressure on the formation and restrict the wells ability to produce at its maximum production rate. FORMATION BACK PRESSURE: The restricting pressure exerted on the face of the formation by a column or fluid or surface pressure.STATIC FLUID LEVEL: The height the STATIC BHP can push and support the fluid column in a well that is shut in and the pressures have stabilized.The fluid gradient for calculating normal pressure below surface at any point is. STATIC FLUID GRADIENT: The pressure in PSI exerted by a column of fluid one-foot high.FLOWING BHP or PRODUCING BHP: The pressure in a well at a point opposite the producing formation during the wells production process.STATIC BHP: The pressure in a well at a point opposite the producing formation after the well has been shut in and the pressure has stabilized.BOTTOM HOLE PRESSURE - (BHP): The pressure in a well at a point opposite the producing formation.Productivity Index for the Beam Gas Compressor®
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